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2024-12-13 04:45:22

Analyst Anstey: Today's CPI data will hardly change anyone's prospects. However, those who still think that the Fed will remain inactive next week may reconsider, because inflation is not worse than expected. This seems to give the green light to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 18th.After the publication of CPI in the United States, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December has almost been fully priced. According to CME's "Fed Observation", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 2.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 97.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 1.7%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 71.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 27.1%.German Chancellor Scholz: Decisions need to be made before the end of the year, such as improving children's welfare. It is necessary to solve the financial drag problem before the end of the year.


The annual unadjusted food inflation rate in the United States in November was 2.4%, and the previous value was 2.1%. The annual inflation rate of new cars in the United States in November was -0.7%, and the previous value was -1.3%. The annual unadjusted housing inflation rate in the United States in November was 4.7%, and the previous value was 4.9%.U.S. stock index futures expanded before the market, with S&P 500 futures up 0.4%, Nasdaq futures up 0.6% and Dow futures up 0.2%.Broadcom US stocks rose 3.6% before the market, while Apple US stocks rose 0.3% before the market. In the news, Apple is cooperating with Broadcom around artificial intelligence (AI) chips.


German Chancellor Angela Scholz called for a vote of confidence to pave the way for the February 23rd election.Market News: U.S. Congressman Nancy Mays was attacked in the Capitol because of the transgender bill.The further rebound of CPI in the United States is in line with market expectations. The annual rate of CPI in the United States in November was 2.7%, which was expected to be 2.7% and the previous value was 2.60%. After seasonal adjustment, the monthly CPI rate is 0.3%, expected 0.3%, and the previous value is 0.20%. The annual rate of core CPI in the United States in November was not seasonally adjusted to 3.3%, which was expected to be 3.3% and the previous value was 3.30%. After seasonal adjustment, the monthly rate of core CPI is 0.3%, the expected rate is 0.30%, and the previous value is 0.30%.

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